through the looking glass
Jan. 16th, 2003 10:39 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
saint_monkeyokay,
one more time on the whole war thing. now i'll be the first to admit it, i'm a liberal. i don't see anything wrong with that. i'm for a lot of whack, left wing ideas like socialized medicine and legalized drug use. i'm not so far out there that i'm in nader land, at least, not yet, and i can be pretty centrist on many ideas. one of them happens to be war. i would like it if we lived in some kind of magic happy land where there was no war and no religion too, just like the man said, but it just ain't happening. i'm a pragmatist, we aren't wired that way. what we are wired for is war. all the little monkies come out of their savannah (or submerged rice fields, depending upon whether or no you think the whole "aquatic ape theory" holds water (pun intended.))anyhow, they come roaring out of the svelte grasslands into some other monkey territory, and they kill all the monkey men of breeding age, mate with all the eligible monkey women, and bingo, all the monkey children bear a striking resmblance to whichever monkey is the current monkey version of genghis khan. scientists have a fancy word for this, biodiversity. too tight a group and you start getting a bloodline like the royals... the family tree starts looking morelike a telephone pole. we can solve this via careful monkey negotiation, and peaceful monkey travel and mixing between monkeys of different tribes, (sound likely?) or monkeys with sticks hitting each other.
our current problem is that we can't use our wondrous brains, which are so versatile and inventive, to turn off this war instinct, and even if we could, chances are likely that the other guy couldn't. so i figure, we will have war, at least, as long as we remain uncivilized little monkies, we will always have war. we will make up lots of excuses, but it all boils down to, monkey see, monkey want, monkey take. (and maybe (and i'm just saying this to sate you in particular Gary,) monkeys trying to stop other monkeys from taking,)
so... given that all of this is monkey stick shaking, i think that the administration is making a grave policy error in regards to korea.
it seems that bush is trying his latest trick with them, a reagan-esque policy of firm finger shaking "don't you do that!" and the "United States does not capitulate!" without looking at the situation very well. not even ronnie took such a tone with the north koreans. he didn't have to, the soviets provided aid to them, and kept them quiet, as china did for much of bush senior (prior to the fall of the berlin wall) . but with clinton opening china up to "most favored trade nation status" china has subtracted itself from north korea. most north korean households depended upon goods from china, representatives from regions were sent to markets at the border, to trade for chinese things. this was unsanctioned trade, and with the goods the party gave out, north koreans could live, if not in comfort, at least without too much hardship. in order to buddy up to the united states, china ceased supporting the north koreans, and specifically ceased much of the unsanctioned trade. it looked like spying you see, china passing info as well as goods to one of the last of the communist gunslingers. so north korea had to come up with a way to get a supplemental income out of a world that was largely committed to NOT communicating or trading with it, (sanctions are still quite heavily imposed upon the north) while supporting a nation that is technically in need of an ever escalating defense budget. (if you see it from their point of view, the US is playing poker, and trying to raise the pot so high, militarily, that the hand collapses, and north korea's economy folds, like russia's did.)so they need to spend all of their money on defense (and riches for the party, but we won't go there) while still feeding their children. if this wasn't enough, drought and then hurricanes devastated grain harvests in the late nineties and early aughts, they have exhausted their supplies, and by most accounts, children are starving there.
the north koreans came up with a game that they have been playing, it is called "we will rattle our sabres, act like we are desperate for war, and america or japan will give us oil or food." they jump out, seize a ship, or shoot at a copter over the dmz, or send a patrol across the border "by accident," etc. the south gets pissed, the united states grants a concession, and the north quiets down. how do i know this is the game they are playing? it is simple, they only do it in the winter. south korea has booby trapped all major highways into south korea, and they have laid rice patties all around the roads. in the summer, when the fields are full of water, the only way for a ground invasion into the south is only via the roads, which can be bottlenecked easily. the waterlogged fields would slow artillery too much. in the winter, the fields are frozen and south korea is vulnerable to a much larger invarsion force, with many more options for movement. since the point of these moves is to upset the south korean leadership, and moves made in the summer wouldn't upset them, the north only makes moves like this in the winter. if they were moves to assert sovereignty, they would occur all year round. and if you look at the news, they make moves like this nearly every winter, regardless of who is in power in south korea or in the united states. if we want to maintain the status quo, all we needed to do is allow them their sword rattling game, and grant them a little fuel oil in the spirit of international peace (or let the japanese do it, as was the clinton administration's answer to this question.)
so, you are asking, i bet... if all this is just a bluff, then why are you worried about bush's hardline on the matter. it seems so cowboy-like, it makes us stronger right? John Wayne: we realize your game, and we ain't gonna play it, parder.
perhaps, but i am worried about two things, the first, that state of the nation address that outed North Korea as a member of the "Axis of Evil." north korea didn't like that, they don't see themselves as particularly evil. they see themselves as "boxed in." surrounded by hostiles and all their allies are gone or turned traitor. and what has happened to the nations that Bush declared members of this "Axis?" Bush has taken a hurtin to em, all that is, except North Korea. If you are sittin in Pyong Yang, you might get to thinkin about that gulf war footage of the tomahawk missile dropping down the chimney of that bunker in Iraq right about now.
the other thing? it's gonna seem like a lotta what ifs, but it makes sense to me. it was the united states dropping out fo the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. if you were stubborn, like north korea, you might get to thinkin that you could use a nuclear program, to keep all the south koreans at a healthy distance, and to make you saber rattling game have a little more punch, and perhaps to keep those cowboy americans from painting a target on your stately pleasure dome. and if the united states isn't going to abide by the non proliferation treaty, then why should the north? it has the materials, it has the missiles, (the CIA even believes they have a device) why shouldn't a sovereign nation develop a weapon that helps preserve their grip on their country? this is a little more than speculation, simplyu because the north koreans used to refer to their search for a nuke as the development of "the decisive weapon."
now, these two things, plus bush's unwillingness to negotiate after the move on the nuclear materials in october and november, (which was, i think, the north koreans giving us a chance to offer aid,) makes me think that the north koreans have NOT made a nuclear bomb as yet, and it makes me think that they now fear that the traditional game of saber rattling will no longer work against bush, so they need...
wait for it.
they need to show the world, decisively, that they do have a nuclear device.
not that they'd use it, but maybe they'd put it on parade, or arrange a defecting scientist to come over to the south and "leak" the info... the fact that they haven't done this yet... means that they don't have a hole card. now they are ignoring the united states, and calling offers at reconciliation "pie in the sky" not because they don't want the help, but because they are working to MAKE their hole card. thus the removal of UN cameras at north korean nuclear materail sites...
and let me tell you, the thing that really scares me about all this. if north korea produces one or two or three devices, then we may have a hard time convincing south korea (which could have a nuclear program and a nuclear device, you bet, in a matter of months,) japan (you want to see how fast japan could put together the bomb? i bet they could do it in a few hours,) and taiwan from feeling the need to prepare to offer counter deterrants in the face of a north korean device, especially in the face of our own withdrawl from the non-proliferation treaties and the salt treaties.
one more time on the whole war thing. now i'll be the first to admit it, i'm a liberal. i don't see anything wrong with that. i'm for a lot of whack, left wing ideas like socialized medicine and legalized drug use. i'm not so far out there that i'm in nader land, at least, not yet, and i can be pretty centrist on many ideas. one of them happens to be war. i would like it if we lived in some kind of magic happy land where there was no war and no religion too, just like the man said, but it just ain't happening. i'm a pragmatist, we aren't wired that way. what we are wired for is war. all the little monkies come out of their savannah (or submerged rice fields, depending upon whether or no you think the whole "aquatic ape theory" holds water (pun intended.))anyhow, they come roaring out of the svelte grasslands into some other monkey territory, and they kill all the monkey men of breeding age, mate with all the eligible monkey women, and bingo, all the monkey children bear a striking resmblance to whichever monkey is the current monkey version of genghis khan. scientists have a fancy word for this, biodiversity. too tight a group and you start getting a bloodline like the royals... the family tree starts looking morelike a telephone pole. we can solve this via careful monkey negotiation, and peaceful monkey travel and mixing between monkeys of different tribes, (sound likely?) or monkeys with sticks hitting each other.
our current problem is that we can't use our wondrous brains, which are so versatile and inventive, to turn off this war instinct, and even if we could, chances are likely that the other guy couldn't. so i figure, we will have war, at least, as long as we remain uncivilized little monkies, we will always have war. we will make up lots of excuses, but it all boils down to, monkey see, monkey want, monkey take. (and maybe (and i'm just saying this to sate you in particular Gary,) monkeys trying to stop other monkeys from taking,)
so... given that all of this is monkey stick shaking, i think that the administration is making a grave policy error in regards to korea.
it seems that bush is trying his latest trick with them, a reagan-esque policy of firm finger shaking "don't you do that!" and the "United States does not capitulate!" without looking at the situation very well. not even ronnie took such a tone with the north koreans. he didn't have to, the soviets provided aid to them, and kept them quiet, as china did for much of bush senior (prior to the fall of the berlin wall) . but with clinton opening china up to "most favored trade nation status" china has subtracted itself from north korea. most north korean households depended upon goods from china, representatives from regions were sent to markets at the border, to trade for chinese things. this was unsanctioned trade, and with the goods the party gave out, north koreans could live, if not in comfort, at least without too much hardship. in order to buddy up to the united states, china ceased supporting the north koreans, and specifically ceased much of the unsanctioned trade. it looked like spying you see, china passing info as well as goods to one of the last of the communist gunslingers. so north korea had to come up with a way to get a supplemental income out of a world that was largely committed to NOT communicating or trading with it, (sanctions are still quite heavily imposed upon the north) while supporting a nation that is technically in need of an ever escalating defense budget. (if you see it from their point of view, the US is playing poker, and trying to raise the pot so high, militarily, that the hand collapses, and north korea's economy folds, like russia's did.)so they need to spend all of their money on defense (and riches for the party, but we won't go there) while still feeding their children. if this wasn't enough, drought and then hurricanes devastated grain harvests in the late nineties and early aughts, they have exhausted their supplies, and by most accounts, children are starving there.
the north koreans came up with a game that they have been playing, it is called "we will rattle our sabres, act like we are desperate for war, and america or japan will give us oil or food." they jump out, seize a ship, or shoot at a copter over the dmz, or send a patrol across the border "by accident," etc. the south gets pissed, the united states grants a concession, and the north quiets down. how do i know this is the game they are playing? it is simple, they only do it in the winter. south korea has booby trapped all major highways into south korea, and they have laid rice patties all around the roads. in the summer, when the fields are full of water, the only way for a ground invasion into the south is only via the roads, which can be bottlenecked easily. the waterlogged fields would slow artillery too much. in the winter, the fields are frozen and south korea is vulnerable to a much larger invarsion force, with many more options for movement. since the point of these moves is to upset the south korean leadership, and moves made in the summer wouldn't upset them, the north only makes moves like this in the winter. if they were moves to assert sovereignty, they would occur all year round. and if you look at the news, they make moves like this nearly every winter, regardless of who is in power in south korea or in the united states. if we want to maintain the status quo, all we needed to do is allow them their sword rattling game, and grant them a little fuel oil in the spirit of international peace (or let the japanese do it, as was the clinton administration's answer to this question.)
so, you are asking, i bet... if all this is just a bluff, then why are you worried about bush's hardline on the matter. it seems so cowboy-like, it makes us stronger right? John Wayne: we realize your game, and we ain't gonna play it, parder.
perhaps, but i am worried about two things, the first, that state of the nation address that outed North Korea as a member of the "Axis of Evil." north korea didn't like that, they don't see themselves as particularly evil. they see themselves as "boxed in." surrounded by hostiles and all their allies are gone or turned traitor. and what has happened to the nations that Bush declared members of this "Axis?" Bush has taken a hurtin to em, all that is, except North Korea. If you are sittin in Pyong Yang, you might get to thinkin about that gulf war footage of the tomahawk missile dropping down the chimney of that bunker in Iraq right about now.
the other thing? it's gonna seem like a lotta what ifs, but it makes sense to me. it was the united states dropping out fo the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. if you were stubborn, like north korea, you might get to thinkin that you could use a nuclear program, to keep all the south koreans at a healthy distance, and to make you saber rattling game have a little more punch, and perhaps to keep those cowboy americans from painting a target on your stately pleasure dome. and if the united states isn't going to abide by the non proliferation treaty, then why should the north? it has the materials, it has the missiles, (the CIA even believes they have a device) why shouldn't a sovereign nation develop a weapon that helps preserve their grip on their country? this is a little more than speculation, simplyu because the north koreans used to refer to their search for a nuke as the development of "the decisive weapon."
now, these two things, plus bush's unwillingness to negotiate after the move on the nuclear materials in october and november, (which was, i think, the north koreans giving us a chance to offer aid,) makes me think that the north koreans have NOT made a nuclear bomb as yet, and it makes me think that they now fear that the traditional game of saber rattling will no longer work against bush, so they need...
wait for it.
they need to show the world, decisively, that they do have a nuclear device.
not that they'd use it, but maybe they'd put it on parade, or arrange a defecting scientist to come over to the south and "leak" the info... the fact that they haven't done this yet... means that they don't have a hole card. now they are ignoring the united states, and calling offers at reconciliation "pie in the sky" not because they don't want the help, but because they are working to MAKE their hole card. thus the removal of UN cameras at north korean nuclear materail sites...
and let me tell you, the thing that really scares me about all this. if north korea produces one or two or three devices, then we may have a hard time convincing south korea (which could have a nuclear program and a nuclear device, you bet, in a matter of months,) japan (you want to see how fast japan could put together the bomb? i bet they could do it in a few hours,) and taiwan from feeling the need to prepare to offer counter deterrants in the face of a north korean device, especially in the face of our own withdrawl from the non-proliferation treaties and the salt treaties.
